Robots and the hourglass economy

A Robot-Human Alliance: Technology is, by some economists' accounts, causing a hollowing out of middle-income jobs.

CORRECTION: The original version of this story incompletely described a demonstration of a pharmacy robot. The demonstration took place at Roboworld at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, and involved a robot that sorts and delivers pills for fictitious patients. The text has been corrected.

Kai Ryssdal: Time now to rejoin our traveling correspondent David Brancaccio, somewhere in the greater American Southwest, as he continues his long lonely coast-to-coast drive in the complete absence of human interaction. Our series is called Robots Ate My Job: What technology's doing to the future of jobs in this country. Today, what happens when the robots do take over. Here's David.

David Brancaccio: Mile 2,100 now, trying for Las Vegas, day five. Two pieces of technology have made possible this attempt to drive across the country with only machines and no humans. Man's gotta eat, so there's the self-checkout robots at supermarkets along the way. And machine number two, recognize it?



I've been sneaking a $49 microwave oven into my hotel rooms, like this one in Albuquerque last night. Dorky, clumsy, effective. And for amusement, I downloaded an episode of "30 Rock." In it, Jack Donagy, Alec Baldwin's character, tells Kenneth the NBC page, that he's being replaced by a machine.

Jack Donagy from "30 Rock" clip: We're calling it Not Kenneth. We've inputted the entire page handbook into Not-Kenneth's database. It knows everything you know and more.

Kenneth from "30 Rock" clip: Why Jack? Why?

Because it's cheaper. And the argument goes, the jobs robots replace, are not the jobs that people really want -- like retail cashier.

Scanner: If you are finished scanning, please touch finish and pay.

Here's what I found out before I set out on my trip. A CVS pharmacy near Grand Central in New York has machines so you can check out all by your lonesome.

Scanner: Please wait...

The store also has humans on the payroll, like Lily. She says the drone checkouts have been great for the store and customers above all, dig shorter lines. But some do complain about the machine's attitude.

Lily: They call her the "crazy lady" sometimes. They say that she's very annoying.

Scanner: Your total is.... Please wait. System processing.

Maybe this model needs a little warmth dialed into its algorithm? While some grocery chains, including Kroger, have pulled out some self-checkout lanes, the big boy of retail, Wal-Mart, said just the other day it's putting in more. While the company says no jobs are being eliminated, Wal-Mart notes that every second in average checkout time saved in all its American stores is $12 million in wages it can save. And there's also the question of who wants to stand behind a register for a whole shift anyway?

Jackie Gitmed: Well, I don't know why people say those are jobs that people don't want because I want my job. I'm fighting to keep my job.

Jackie Gitmed works as a cashier for a grocery chain out in Encino, Calif. She's been working as a cashier for 35 years. She says it's a good job -- benefits, pension -- and she likes it just fine.

Gitmed: My father was in the industry for 50 years. So I'm second generation. Actually, third generation, my grandmother was a cashier. So it's, you know, it's our chosen family profession. It sounds silly, it sounds crazy, but we all like it. We're people people.

But the grocery store where she works put in the self-checkout a few years ago -- workers there actually call them robots. No one got laid off, Gitmed says. But they did cut people's hours -- sometimes by 10 hours a week. And now instead of just working one machine, she oversees five checkouts. She says it's exhausting to manage her lane plus four robots, but here's the important part: It's a job that works for her, whatever an economist might say about good or bad jobs.

Gitmed: I cannot go pick up and go somewhere else and make the same kind of money. I'd have to start at the bottom and at 51 years old, quite frankly, no one is going to want to hire me.

Economic theory says that technological disruption shakes things up, but then the jobs get better. Machines make people more productive and so their pay should go up and their jobs should get more fulfilling.

David Autor: What you learned in economics class is half right, it's just not the whole story.

David Autor is an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies labor markets. He says technology does raise productivity and create more wealth. But now with innovation moving so fast, the benefits are only spreading in some directions.

Autor: Certainly the labor market has never been better for very highly-educated workers in the United States and when I say never, I mean never.

And there are many jobs toward the bottom of the workforce -- janitors, housekeepers, home health aids -- jobs robots don't do well. Autor calls this the "hourglass economy" -- the big squeeze is in the middle for both blue- and white-collar workers. Using Turbo Tax this year? OK, so maybe one less accountant. At Carnegie Mellon University's Roboworld in Pittsburgh, I saw a demonstration of a pharmacy robot that sorts and deliver pills for fictitious patients.

Pharmacist: Oh, so let's see here. So, for instance, here's Sun Kwan and she needs a little Abuteral. That's right so we'll scan that and the robot will get right to work.

Brancaccio: It all adds up.

Autor: So automation has again -- and very heavily actually -- been nibbling away at those set of jobs, but interestingly as workers are displaced from those activities, it's not necessarily clear that it's onward and upward. It's not the same as the move from the farm to manufacturing.

And innovation is moving fast. There's the Google robot car that wasn't supposed to be possible. Amazingly futuristic, yes, but maybe not so amazing if you're a taxi driver. The possibility for robot jobs is almost endless.

Autor: It's absolutely correct that the range of tasks that will turn out to be automatable or computerizable is only going to get broader.

And, I was fascinated to learn even journalists are not immune.

Robot: Now, let's do the numbers.

Oh that's pretty plausible, we could hire that guy. That story tomorrow. On the road, I'm David Brancaccio for Marketplace.

About the author

David Brancaccio is the host of Marketplace Morning Report. Follow David on Twitter @DavidBrancaccio
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When will a politician be brave and honest enough to admit that there just won't be enough jobs to go around for everyone in the future? The robot/digital revolution genie cannot be put back in the bottle, so we have to face the truth. The answer is to start job-sharing programs like they have in Germany. Yes, the government will have to subsidize salaries, but it's more effective than endless welfare or unemployment checks and better for everyone's morale.

Hah! Just watched the video. The end says it all (spoiler alert):

"As long as you can program me, there will always be a place for you here; just think of us as partners."

As a professional software developer (and hobbyist robotics designer), I honestly look forward to the day when I "put myself out of business"; if I (or someone else) is ever able to get a robot to program itself, in a general fashion (akin to self-learning in humans), I will consider "my job done here".

I don't see that happening in the next 5 or 10 years - but in 50 years? Perhaps...

First off, I'm pretty sure no HIPAA violation occurred (while a pharmacist is a "covered entity", this didn't occur as part of an electronic transaction); another assumption is that the name mentioned was an actual person's name (do we really know that? No)...

...anyhow, my first real job out of high school was as a cashier. While I was glad to have the job, when they cut my hours to the bone for the Christmas holiday season (nice, huh?), I decided to quit, and strike out on my own. At the time, I was attending a local technical school, learning all about "computer electronics".

I ended up being hired by a local (now defunct) "mom-n-pop" software development shop; since then, things have only gotten better. I still do software development, and in my free time, I develop homebrew robotics systems. Last year I took a free online course from Stanford, taught by Professor Andrew Ng, on how to implement machine learning algorithms.

Want to know where the jobs are? The jobs are in knowing how to program the intelligent algorithms for the computer systems that our world society relies upon. The jobs are in having those skills and knowledge. If you don't have those skills - you better get them, in some way, shape or form.

The future is today: Welcome to the 21st century...

My job got ate by a robot? Mine got deported. Thanks to CAFTA, George W. Bush, and our own US Senator Richard Burr. Cumpitors and robots helped mine to be more efficient, but the labor is cheaper down there. I had to learn Spanish for any employee hired after 1990 for this?

Perhaps I missed the mentions, but I hope you will be mentioning and/or following up with items addressing UAV use by law enforcement, that the robot takeover is already starting with iRobot consumer models, Amazon buying Kiva and Intuitive Surgical being used for surgery!!! Thank, keep up the great work!

Please tell me that that was a fictional person with a fictional prescription. I could not believe what I heard - surely you know better than to broadcast personal health info - HIPAA! I see I am not the only one to be alarmed by this. Fix it please.

Self-checkout saves time? Hah! Even with several people in front of me and only a few items to check out I will still get out of the grocery store faster if I wait for the human checker. Perhaps I just don't have the right "twist of the wrist", but I have a devil of a time getting the scanner to read and nearly always wind up calling for the human to help me. If using the self-checkout were the only option I would NOT shop at that store.

I absolutely refuse to use those automated checkout things as I prefer to deal with a real flesh-and-blood living sentient human being; For the same reasons I've ceased using ATMs years ago.

It's absolutely clear that it's not "onward and upward." I would like to see a bit more questioning of fundamentals from you guys. May I suggest that increased productively is not necessarily a good thing? If anything, we should be working for *less* productivity. We produce way too much stuff as it is, and from what I hear on your program nearly every day, a major problem with our economy is that people aren't buying enough of it. So why not reduce supply to meet demand? And increase job opportunities by reducing automation while we're at it? Or shall we finally admit that our entire economy is just one big bubble?

Being an engineer, I had to use the electronic checkout once but since then I have decided to stand in the line for a human checkout. I refuse to use the robots even if it costs me time. It's a little disingenuous to say these machines cost no jobs, they cost the jobs of the people who would have been hired. All those "saved" payroll costs get packed in a sock and sent to walmart headquarters instead of being poured into the local economy.


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